This individual framework pack gives you one
complete, focused topic framework for your
IB Math AA Internal Assessment.
THE FRAMEWORK: Probability and Prediction
This framework guides you through a probability
investigation — using theoretical and experimental
probability, distributions, and expected value
to analyse and make predictions about a real-world
scenario that interests you.
MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS:
✓ Probability rules (combined events,
conditional probability)
✓ Binomial distribution
✓ Expected value and variance
✓ Normal distribution (as approximation)
✓ Comparison of theoretical vs experimental
SL APPROACH:
Investigate a scenario using binomial or basic
probability models. Compare theoretical
predictions to experimental or observed data.
Discuss the reliability of the model.
HL APPROACH:
Extend to Poisson distribution, more complex
combined distributions, or Bayes theorem
applications. Include hypothesis testing
to validate probability claims.
PERSONALIZATION OPTIONS:
□ Sports outcomes and win probability
□ Game theory and strategy analysis
□ Medical screening false positive analysis
□ Quality control and defect prediction
□ Weather event probability modelling
□ Any scenario with measurable probability
WHAT IS INCLUDED:
✓ Full framework description and aim guidance
✓ Criterion-by-criterion breakdown (A through E)
✓ SL and HL mathematical pathways
✓ Context and variable selection options
✓ Title template with examples
✓ 5-step action plan
✓ Teacher discussion questions
✓ Academic integrity guidelines
✓ Self-assessment checklist
FORMAT: PDF — instant download
PAGES: Approximately 8 pages
EDITION: 2026
